開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

29S.Jobo 登陸莫三比克

查看數: 18264 評論數: 27 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2021-4-15 18:00

正文摘要:

  熱帶氣旋   編號:16-20202021 ( 29 S ) 名稱:Jobo 以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-4-25 04:40
JTWC發布Final Warning
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 8.0S 39.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S 39.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 8.0S 38.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0S 38.8E.
24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC JOBO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHED THE TANZANIAN COAST WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A COHESIVE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 241801Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (10-20 KNOTS) ALONG THE
COAST WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG 8S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241623Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL HEAVY
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NO EVIDENCE
OF AN LLC AS REFLECTED IN THE ASCAT DATA. THUS, IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED AS A WEAK 20-25 KNOT SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO TANZANIA. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN


sh2921 (2).gif 29S_241800sair.jpg

LATEST - 2021-04-25T043934.672.jpg
老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-4-25 03:07
JTWC判定已登陸,18Z降TD
29S JOBO 210424 1800 7.8S 38.6E SHEM 30 1004
TPXS10 PGTW 241827

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO)

B. 24/1800Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/MET8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG
sfcplot_29S_latest.png 20210424.1800.msg-4.ir.29S.JOBO.30kts.1004mb.7.8S.38.6E.100pc.jpg
20210424.1623.f17.91pct91h91v.29S.JOBO.35kts.1004mb.7.8S.39.7E.070pc.jpg
老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-4-24 04:13
MFR新報預測其將於一天內成為填塞中氣旋,随後登陸莫三比克
WTIO30 FMEE 231859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

SWI_20202021 (7).png 20210423.1900.msg-1.ir.29S.JOBO.35kts.1005mb.8.1S.42.3E.100pc.jpg
20210423.1357.f16.91pct91h91v.29S.JOBO.40kts.1002mb.8.5S.43.4E.070pc.jpg 20210423.1357.f16.91h.29S.JOBO.40kts.1002mb.8.5S.43.4E.070pc.jpg

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表