老農民版夜神月

FMS上望48H後澳式C3,72H後澳式C4

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 120753 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
173.0E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
TD02F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEPRESSION
INTENSIFYING.

CONVECTION REMAINED PERSISTANT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.55 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
DT=2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 13.3S 173.8E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 14.1S 174.1E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 14.7S 174.0E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 15.1S 173.8E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC.

dom

JTWC TCFA

dom

91P型態轉好，FMS將其升格為TD

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 120214 UTC.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 170.7E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. TD02F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  CONVECTION REMAINED PERSISTANT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD02F IS SLOW MOVING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.25 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.  FORECASTS :  AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.4S 171.9E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.3S 172.6E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 15.0S 172.6E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.4S 172.4E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

稍弱於右側的04P，優勢是對流明顯較多，GFS12Z新報仍然傾向於04P會和91P合併後發展,要看到時是誰併吞誰了

GALE WARNING 020 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 111908 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 169.5E AT
111800 UTC. TD02F MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DISTURBANCE.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 018.

dom

FMS編號02F，兩天展望評級High，但預料會與04P有互動

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.6S 170.0E AT 110000UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 IR & VIS IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND THE ORGANISATION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

Heigo

JTWC Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 170.4E, APPROXIMATELY
425 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102146Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 102032Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC LLCC
WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. 91P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING THAT 91P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P.
HOWEVER, GFS AND NAVGEM ARE SHOWING THAT 91P WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING 04P.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

正與90P進行藤原，可能於一兩天後會與90P整合成一個後期強度較強的系統

老農民版夜神月

JTWC12Z升格其為TD

91P INVEST 201210 1200 11.0S 170.3E SHEM 25 1004