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霧峰追風者|2018-7-13 15:10
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JTWC 05Z評級提升Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130049Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED JUST OFFSET OF
THE CENTER, TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). 94W IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE
FEATURE TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE EAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS, AS SHOWN IN GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL HAVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 92W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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