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kingchard2011|2024-5-22 05:01
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MFR:
- WTIO30 FMEE 211837
- RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
- TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
- 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20232024
- 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
- 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1800 UTC:
- WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
- (FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
- FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
- MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT
- 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
- 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
- 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
- RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM
- 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
- 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
- 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
- 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
- 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
- 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
- 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
- 12H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
- 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
- 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
- 24H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
- 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
- NIL
- 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
- PT=4.0- CI=4.5-
- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED: INITIALLY
- WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION UP TO 14UTC, CONVECTION RAPIDLY
- INVADED THE CENTER, LEAVING IALY IN A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. IN
- THE FINAL MOMENTS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WARMED UP, LEAVING A
- LARGER SHARE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. IN SUCH A
- CONFIGURATION, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 4.0- CAN BE MADE AND, DUE TO
- INERTIA, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5-. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
- SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ITS RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND
- INERTIA CAN BE ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, AND PARTIALLY
- VALIDATED BY A SMOS DATA OF 47KT AT 1451UTC AND A SAR DATA OF 50KT AT
- 1524UTC, WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55KT, LEAVING IALY AT THE STAGE OF A
- STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
- IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-LIMITED DUE TO ITS FAST FOLLOWING
- DISAPPEARANCE. WHEREAS, DURING PREVIOUS NETWORKS, THE SYSTEM
- CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER
- THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, THE LATEST
- ANALYSIS POINTS VALIDATE THE NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE WEAKENING OF
- THE SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTING FLOW DOMINATES. AS THE TRADE
- WINDS SKIRT THE COAST OF AFRICA, THEY SHOULD GUIDE THE TRACK
- NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12H. IT WILL BE
- INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
- THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
- ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS!
- IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD SO
- FAR, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT
- ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE MODELS PREDICTED A MORE PRONOUNCED
- SHEAR, EXPLAINING IN PART THEIR TENDENCY TO PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
- (TO WHICH IS ADDED THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, A CHARACTERISTIC
- THAT MODELS WITH SOMEWHAT COARSE RESOLUTION FIND HARD TO GRASP), THE
- LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
- LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EFFECT ON VORTEX STRUCTURE. IN THE CASE
- OF A SMALL SYSTEM, THIS LEADS TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY,
- AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, THE
- CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET.
- EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :
- TANZANIA:
- - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
- WEDNESDAY NOON.
- KENYA :
- - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
- - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=
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