t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 200530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 160.0E TO 29.8N 154.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N
159.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.3N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
1140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INO THE CENTER. A 192318Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED LLCC. A 192232Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ISOLATED 30-KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES 29 TO 30C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM RETAINS SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IT APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
TO A TROPICAL, WARM-CORE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
HOWEVER, SOME CONSOLIDATION APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210530Z.//
NNNN

周子堯@FB

JTWC升評為Meduum

blackcat

這位子的TC老J向來都處理得很消極
副熱帶性質邊緣但螺旋性一定都很好
目前來看就算不小心升格了也是曇花一現
反而他右邊的97W比較有看頭

Meow

預測明天命名。



熱帯低気圧
平成29年07月19日22時30分 発表

<19日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯 26度25分(26.4度)
東経 161度50分(161.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1010hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<20日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 27度20分(27.3度)
東経 158度00分(158.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

jwpk9899

CWB下午也升格TD   氣壓1008hpa 跟JMA落差有4百帕

三、熱帶性低氣壓１００８百帕，在北緯２５．５度，東
經１６２度，即在日本東方海面，向西北緩慢移動。

t02436

JMA 00Z：TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 26N 162E NNW SLOWLY.

jwpk9899

評級LOW

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
27.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTIALLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A
DEVELOPING LLCC. WEAK OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THERE IS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYMMETRY AND
STRENGTH OF THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. SST IS FAVORABLE AT 29C
AND THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING ASSESSED AS TROPICAL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1013 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.