系統已於21Z登陸，00Z報降C1，將深入內陸。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 31/01/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Stan
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 120.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [156 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  31/0600: 22.0S 121.0E:     040 [075]:  035  [065]:  986
+12:  31/1200: 23.4S 122.2E:     060 [110]:  035  [065]:  990
+18:  31/1800: 25.3S 123.7E:     080 [150]:  035  [065]:  990
+24:  01/0000: 27.4S 125.7E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  992
+36:  01/1200:             :              :            :     
+48:  02/0000:             :              :            :     
+60:  02/1200:             :              :            :     
+72:  03/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  04/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 05/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Stan made landfall near Pardoo on the east Pilbara coast at 2am
[1800UTC] and is now weakening over land.

Vigorous convection persists near the centre and gales are being experienced
near and to the east of the centre. The system has begun to accelarate to the
southeast under the influence of an approaching upper level trough.

TC Stan should weaken below cyclone strength later this afternoon. However, even
after the system weakens over land, there is the potential for wind gusts over
90km/h on the eastern side of the track well into the interior of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

這底層不像是可以增強到STC。

BoM 12Z升澳式C2，24小時之內就會登陸，強度將有機會達到澳式C3。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 29/01/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Stan
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 118.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [155 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  29/1800: 18.7S 118.2E:     045 [085]:  055  [100]:  984
+12:  30/0000: 19.2S 118.4E:     055 [100]:  060  [110]:  978
+18:  30/0600: 19.8S 118.7E:     065 [125]:  065  [120]:  976
+24:  30/1200: 20.6S 119.3E:     080 [145]:  050  [095]:  984
+36:  31/0000: 22.9S 120.7E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  31/1200: 26.1S 123.4E:     120 [220]:  025  [045]: 1000
+60:  01/0000:             :              :            :     
+72:  01/1200:             :              :            :     
+96:  02/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 03/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Stan has developed north of WA and is now a category 2 system.

Dvorak analysis yields DT of 3.5 based on earlier curved band and shear patterns
with latest imagery biased towards MET/PAT and system intensity is set at 50
knots.

Deep convection persists although is slightly offset from the low level
circulation as some shear is affecting the system, this is highlighted in recent
microwave imagery. CIMSS shear at 09z showed easterly shear about 20 to 30 knots
although the actual shear the system is experiencing appears lower. Despite this
Stan has continued to intensify over the past 6 hours and is now a category 2
system and northwesterly gales have benn observed at Rowley Shoals [75nm NE of
Stan] for the past 3 hours.

The system will track steadily towards the south southeast and make landfall
along the Pilbara coast during Saturday afternoon or evening. Recent guidance
has shifted the track slightly to the east and a little slower, aiding in
further development of the system. Steering is being influenced by a mid level
ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough.

With favourable conditions until landfall, Stan should intensify to category 3
[severe tropical cyclone] prior to crossing the coast. Even after the system
weakens over land, there is the potential for Severe winds on the eastern side
of the track well into the interior of WA.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 281030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 117.6E TO 19.5S 117.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280920Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 117.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SPIRAL BANDING WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION FORMING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 280856Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. CURRENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 28 TO 32 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND LOWER VWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291030Z.//
NNNN