JTWC 00Z重新評級Low，目前判定為副熱帶氣旋

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 08S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 26.5S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1228 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252232Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTS 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH 40 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE, STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND A DECREASING CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RANGE BETWEEN 24C TO 26C. BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT, THIS
SYSTEM IS NOW SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 986 MB. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.   

MFR已於昨天06Z認定Corentin為後熱帶氣旋
今日00Z報文，72小時內轉化。

** WTIO31 FMEE 260012 ***

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/3/20152016
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE  3  (EX-CORENTIN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2016 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 79.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT:  NORD-NORD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 690 SO: 690 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 330 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 170



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 26/01/2016 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 27/01/2016 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2016 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 28/01/2016 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2016 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/01/2016 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2016 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 31/01/2016 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST MAINTENANT COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE.
L'ACTIVITE RESIDUELLE EST LA PLUS IMPORTANTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD.  LE COEUR CHAUD EST TOUJOURS PRESENT, CE QUI EST COHERENT AVEC
UNE CONFIGURATION DE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE.

SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI GLISSE AU SUD-EST D'EX-CORENTIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
REPRENDRE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
MARDI, EX-CORENTIN DEVRAIT ETRE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR DE
LA CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE ET SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LA FORCE DES VENTS DEVRAIT RESTER SUPERIEURE
AU COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, DANS LE FORT GRADIENT DE
PMER. DES BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION PEUVENT SE REPRODUIRE JUSQU'A
MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DIMINUE ET QUE LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE REDEVIENT FAVORABLE.

POUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
EXISTE TOUJOURS SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. EX-CORENTIN POURRAIT RALENTIR
DANS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR MOU (COL BAROMETRIQUE), PUIS RESTER AU NORD DE
LA CELLULE ANTICYCLONIQUE SUBTROPICALE (TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST) OU
PLONGER VERS LE SUD, A LA FAVEUR DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. POUR L'INSTANT, C'EST CE SCENARIO D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION
QUI A ETE RETENU.=

最近似乎滿流行彩雲式.

前一個維克托 , 這個克朗坦. 都有相似之處..

都是大爛眼的典型.

估計未來要增強我看也很難.

MFR 06Z升格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 220704 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20152016
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)

2.A POSITION 2016/01/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL
FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :130 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 460 SW: 520 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 430 SE: 220 SW: 300 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/27 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

JTWC 06Z評價65節，升格C1。

今天整合其實已經有比較好了. 風場也不差.

MFR和GFS的預報.

MFR 12Z正報的Corentin，巔峰上望70節。

** WTIO30 FMEE 211230 RRA ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)
2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 74.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 590 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 430 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/22 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/22 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/23 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/24 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/26 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

JTWC升格08S

08S.INVEST.35kts.996mb.15.9S.73.6E

已在09Z由模里西斯命名Corentin。

06Z升格熱帶低壓，保守估計等等12Z就會命名了。

ZCZC 704
WTIO30 FMEE 210638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 590 SW: 560 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/22 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED WITH
THE EMERGENCE OF A CURVED BAND, BECOMING BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED.
AT 06Z, THIS BAND IS WRAPING AROUND A GOOD HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS WORTH T=2.5 IN DVORAK ANALYSIS. 0340Z AND 0430Z
ASCAT SWATHS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOW WINDS
RANGING FROM 30KT UP TO 35KT, EVEN REACHING LOCALLY 40KT. THIS
SUGGESTS DVORAK ANALYSIS COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE SYSTEM
INTENSITY. ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUGGEST
THAT TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ARE PROGRESSIVELY APPEARING, ONE IN THE
NORTH AND ONE IN THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD, OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
WHILE REMAINING UNDER A CELL OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSTRAINTS.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW WILL DRAW BENEFIT FROM GOOD
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
EAST, AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON FRIDAY, AND BEND SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. THE LOW MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM
SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

JTWC發布TCFA


MFR升格熱帶擾動3號
預估24小時之內命名Corentin，巔峰上望75節

ZCZC 347
WTIO30 FMEE 201238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 77.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/01/21 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/22 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/22 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2016/01/23 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-
NNNN