:oAnnabelle目前位置比原先預定的路徑還要更往南偏了一點點，不過這樣附近的小島或許能鬆一口氣了它即將成為溫帶氣旋等於說可以說是無害風暴了。

MFR06Z升格強烈熱帶風暴

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20152016
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 74.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/23 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/11/25 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/25 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/11/26 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0-

THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS HELP THE SYSTEM TO TAKE BENEFIT FROM THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOCATED POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN ITS BEST
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AROUND 04Z WITH A HINT OF AN EYE FEATURE.
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED BUT
REMAIN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN COLD
CLOUD TOPS. AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

THE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR AN ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
THE NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AND ALONG
WITH COOLER SST SOUTH OF 15S SHOULD RESULT ON GRADUAL WEAKENING FOR
REMAINING OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

TONIGHT, AN INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE STORM SHOULD BRING SOME BAROCLINIC CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE SYSTEM ... THEREFORE, ANNABELLE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN SOME
HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING

FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE, AND THE
LLCC IS LIKELY TO FILL UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
SHOULD THEN BEND WESTWARDS THURSDAY, BETWEEN 20S AND 25S, STEERED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=

似乎要嘗試捲一個大風眼
以今年南印度洋第一個命名熱帶氣旋來說
現在這個型態已經相當不錯

南印度洋的 Annabelle 風暴  還在增強中

:)南印度洋的 Annabelle 風暴 過去所處環境幅合極為良好雖然水氣有點欠佳但並不影響它的發展，未來隨著它短時間南移幅度加大會進入水氣較充足的海面強度有再增強且暴風範圍擴大的局勢。

已命名Annabelle。



WTIO30 FMEE 210014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 70.9 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT :   UNDETERMINED

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW:  NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER INTO A IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH A LARGE BANDE IN THE EAST.

THE CURRENT WESTWARDS TRACK HAS CLEARLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT
HOURS, ALL AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACK TO BEND SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.

ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER
STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.
BUT ON SUNDAY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. ON TUESDAY,
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS IN THE TRADES FLOW FILLING UP
PROGRESSIVELY.=