B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 57.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 910 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 260609Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING,
BROAD LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 260523Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0S 60.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1S 60.4E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BENEATH A PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 231454Z SSMIS IMAGE
FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING, MAINLY ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 231407Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A MORE
CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
20 TO 30 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE; HOWEVER, HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE IR LOOP, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
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