Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017
The low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various
satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation.
Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression
Two-E. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier
scatterometer data.
The initial motion is 035/3. A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so. After
that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance. The
GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over
southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the
system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds
to the north. The latter part of the track forecast somewhat
splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the
cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of
Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.
The depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly
vertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this
condition should persist for the next 36-48 h. After that, while
the shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to
the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development. The
intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed
by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast
period.
The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical
Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time.
However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the
biggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 275 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continue
to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the low
drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are expected to spread over the
coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the next several
days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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