JTWC 06Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 148.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 242316Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (UP TO 35) KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC AND MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

:)這隻擾動寶寶結構不是很好目前所在位置跟1521杜鵑颱風早期的擾動初生點差不多，未來應該短期暫時都是偏向西緩慢移動。

:o這隻過幾天再觀察看看目前所在位置離我們還很遙遠未來會怎麼樣變數都還很大。