WTPA45 PHFO 222031
TCDCP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 22 2015

MALIA HAS BEEN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS. THUS...MALIA IS BEING DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS CROSSING THE SST GRADIENT
TOWARD MUCH COOLER WATER AND THE CIMSS 1800 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWED
ABOUT 42 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SO REDEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY. FURTHERMORE...THE CENTER IS MOVING AT 345/16 KT TOWARD A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE DATELINE. THE
REMNANTS OF MALIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE INITIAL WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 30 TO 35 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MALIA/S REMNANT
AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE REMNANT LOW SPINS DOWN.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON MALIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 29.7N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 32.6N 174.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

看來他應該是沒辦法跨過來了www

看來跨洋的機會滿大的~
路徑貌似會像哈洛拉
先觀察看看吧

alu 發表於 2015-9-22 00:52
我感覺應該還沒跨洋就會再見，要打破西太的史上記錄應該再等等

對流是往東北爆發
要跨線有一定難度

開梅 發表於 2015-9-22 00:32
若未來可能跨洋，將打破西太的史上記錄，一年有三個來自中太的颶風越界。舊紀錄的極限都是一年二個而已 ...

我感覺應該還沒跨洋就會再見，要打破西太的史上記錄應該再等等

若未來可能跨洋，將打破西太的史上記錄，一年有三個來自中太的颶風越界。舊紀錄的極限都是一年二個而已

12Z 命名Malia
目前預報處境跟Loke一樣
預計72小時內在北緯40度以北跨線

WTPA45 PHFO 211155
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM MALIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
200 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0827Z SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN A CLEAR
SLOT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ALSO...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDER DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS FLARED UP IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS A RESULT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS OF 200 AM HST THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM
HAS THE NEXT NAME ON THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LIST...WHICH IS MALIA...
PRONOUNCED MAH-LEE-AH.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AT 500
AM HST THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER
THESE VULNERABLE LOW LYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1200Z 24.7N 171.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 26.0N 171.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 28.3N 172.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 35.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  24/0600Z 43.4N 175.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  25/0600Z 50.0N 172.5E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

這隻已經命名為Malia瞜@@
貼個資料吧
話說中太平洋氣旋命名數已經破記錄了