B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N 86.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 160NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). EVIDENT IN A 141500Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
EQUATORWARD ON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE LLCC MOVES OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BECAUSE
THE LLCC IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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