JTWC 18Z升格01P
成為新風季第一個熱帶風暴
上望45節


FMS維持TD

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 02/2333 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 172.8E
AT 022100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND LLCC IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS REDUCED
IN AERIAL EXTEND IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

受到風切影響
對流明顯切離與衰弱

JTWC 20Z升Medium


FMS 23Z升熱帶低壓

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 02/0839 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.0S 172.3E AT
020600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE NORTH OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

JTWC在下午發布TCFA


風場南側掃出35~40節




FMS對系統發出GW

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 02/1315 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.1S 172.5E AT
021200UTC. POSITION POOR. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TD01F CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

垂直風切偏強
深對流明顯切離

前天下午FMS編號01F
昨天下午繼續展望Low

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jul 31/0920 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.0S 168.0E
AT 310600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTH
OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TD01F IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW TO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

JTWC昨天下午降評Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 166.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 659 NM NORTH OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND POLEWARD VENTING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL STR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JTWC評級升級為MEDIUM

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5S 163.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290146Z GCOM 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LLCC. A 282228Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND POLEWARD VENTING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF AUSTRALIA.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.