原先底層風眼已經建立完畢
但受到乾空氣影響
底層眼已經破了








前方OHC已經明顯不足


海溫狀況






NHC持續評價巔峰90節
即將進入中太
後期將影響夏威夷

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011432
TCDEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday when
there was a hint of an eye on satellite imagery. However, Dvorak
T-numbers from all agencies still support an initial intensity of 90
kt. It appears that Guillermo has already peaked in intensity, and
the hurricane is heading toward an environment no longer favorable
for strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a
steady state during the next 12 hours or so, and a gradual weakening
thereafter. By the time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian
Islands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be even more
unfavorable, and by then, Guillermo is expected to have weakened to
a tropical storm. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.

The steering currents have begun to weaken, and Guillermo is slowing
down. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or
280 degrees at 12 kt.  The hurricane is already located on the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and there is a large
weakness of the ridge to its northwest. This pattern should force
the cyclone to slow down even further and turn more to the
west-northwest. The GFS insists on a more northwesterly component
bringing the center of Guillermo north of the Hawaiian Islands. The
ECMWF, on the other hand, brings the cyclone south or near the
Islands.  The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,
and is basically on top of the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS
models.

Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is
important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96
and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72
hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at
those time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.5N 139.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on hurricane Guillermo, located 1245 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header tcpep4 and WMO header wtpz34 KNHC. Guillermo is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility later today.

比較跌破風迷眼鏡的是吉列爾莫.

目前沒有什麼機構看好他的發展. 只上望Cat.1

但是他卻是目前發展進度最快的

而他的名字和形成日正好也和1997年那隻傳奇性相似

未來可能會影響夏威夷



目前吉列爾莫的環境的確是很好. 風切0kt

NHC 06Z速報命名Guillermo

EP, 09, 2015073006,   , BEST,   0,  83N, 1257W,  35, 1004, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,    0,    0,   50, 1010,  220,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,  GUILLERMO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013,

NHC升格09E
預計12小時之內命名
初報巔峰上望75節

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 300235
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that
the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient
convection to be considered a tropical depression.  Thus, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the
current convective organization.

The initial motion is 280/13.  For the next three days or so, a
strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it
generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the
center of the guidance envelope during this period.  From 72-120
hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough
should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the
GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the
Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued
west-northwestward motion.  The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF
solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease
in forward speed.

The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected
to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for
the next 72 hours or so.  This should allow for steady
strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in
calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a
hurricane in about 48 hours.  After 72 hours, a combination of
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z  8.2N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1200Z  8.9N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  31/0000Z  9.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven