對流更進一步減弱
已經減弱為熱帶風暴了

昨天還很強烈 今天緯度過了20N
到了加利福尼亞半島西南方海面
受到加利福尼亞涼流的影響 海溫降低
強度將大幅減弱

雖然稍稍減弱
但型態還是不錯
短期內有小幅增強的空間

風眼開啟
NHC分析T6.0
09Z正報直接評價115節
預計24小時後達到巔峰130節

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150839
TCDEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall.  The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants.  Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB.  Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt.  Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico.  The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion.  Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California.  The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

這型態相當不錯
高層風眼也大致即將開啟
強度上調至90KT
環境不錯強度應該有機會再往上衝

這之前幾天底層一直有眼. 但發展沒有很順利.
最近這張掃到的. 有點樣子了

巔峰估計是3天內
渦度泛白了