TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015
Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better
organized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and
more persistent convection near the center. Given the improved
satellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected
to upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory. The
tropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into
an area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear.
Most of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity
forecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side
of the model envelope.
After a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving
northwestward at about 9 kt. The track should gradually bend back
to the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm
is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is
rather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to
the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north. Overall, the
guidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points,
and the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the
southeast of the consensus at most forecast times.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
Convection associated with the area of low pressure located
well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become
better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around
the western semicircle of the system. Overnight scatterometer data
and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the
circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore
advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of
the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak
classification of 2.0.
The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low
shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more
stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement
with the SHIPS guidance. The cyclone is expected to move over
cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. The depression is
forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north
during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone should
maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track. Later in
the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should
weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from
the west. This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed
to decrease. Although the track guidance is in general agreement
with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the
depression will gain during the next couple of days. The NHC track
is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the
multi-model consensus.
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