21S.Ikola 風切干擾 轉化溫帶氣旋

Meow 發表於 2015-4-7 02:50

BoM 評價 80 節、968 百帕的三級強烈熱帶氣旋，Ikola 是 2010 年 Abele 以來 BoM 轄區首個由模里西斯命名的熱帶氣旋，預測強度很快減弱。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1833 UTC 06/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 91.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0 D2.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  07/0000: 16.9S  91.9E:    030 [060]:  070  [130]:  975
+12:  07/0600: 18.0S  92.7E:    045 [080]:  060  [110]:  983
+18:  07/1200: 19.1S  93.7E:    055 [105]:  045  [085]:  992
+24:  07/1800: 20.1S  94.7E:    070 [130]:  035  [065]:  999
+36:  08/0600: 22.2S  97.2E:    090 [165]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48:  08/1800: 24.1S  99.7E:    110 [200]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  09/0600: 25.6S 102.3E:    130 [235]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  09/1800: 27.7S 105.1E:    145 [270]:  020  [035]: 1005
+96:  10/1800:          :             :          :
+120: 11/1800:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Severe TC Ikola has had an eye evident on satellite imagery for the past 12
hours assisting location and intensity analysis. La Reunion RSMC which had
previously been monitoring Ikola rated the system at 65kn at 12Z today, after
naming the TC at 18Z on the 5th. This is less than SATCON analysis at 12Z which
rated the system at 86kn [1-min mean]. The latest IR image [1730Z] shows an
eye-pattern with a white surround though this has been fluctuating so intensity
has been based on a 3hr average giving DT of 5.0. PT=5.0=FT=CI. Intensity rated
at 80 knots [10-min mean]. SATCON gives intensity of 100kn [1-min mean] at
1319Z.

The system intensified at greater than the standard rate for the last 24 hours,
despite shear increasing significantly in the last few hours. At 00Z this
morning CiMMS indicated a low-shear environment [6 knots], with deep-layer
moisture and plentiful ocean heat for further development. At 06Z CiMMS
indicated shear had increased to 18 knots and Ikola's southwest track will see
it encounter increasing shear as it moves away from a mid-level trough axis and
encounters a stronger NW stream. NWP is in good agreement as to the track of
Ikola and forecasting a further short-term increase in intensity ahead of a
rapid weakening in the 12-24 hour period as shear becomes untenable for the
system and SST become unfavourable.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.