ZCZC 468
WTIO30 FMEE 101229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/12/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 (EX-HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 54.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2015/03/13 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2015/03/13 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-HALIBA CIRCULATION IS FULLED EXPOSED SINCE THIS MORNING.
HALIBA TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INFLUENCED BY THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM NR11. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST A LOOP
TOWARD THE NORTH THIS NIGHT BEFORE TO MOVE AGAIN EASTSOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD A TRANSITING MID-LATITUDES TROUGH TOMORROW.
ON THIS TRACK, HALIBA SHOULD MOVE CLOSER THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTEARLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
ON WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GO THROUGH A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9S
49.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 49.7E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE MADAGASCAR COAST. A 071930 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 TO 30
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NEAR 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
MFR持續不看好成為熱帶風暴
** WTIO30 FMEE 080117 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 50.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/08 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/03/09 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/09 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/12 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/03/13 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION SINCE A FEW HOURS.
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTH-EAST WITHIN A
WEST TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTS AND OVER WARM
ENOUGH WATERS, SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER
TOMORROW EVENING, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT SOUTH OF 20S SHOULD LIMIT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCARENES ISLANDS WITH A HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/12/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12
2.A POSITION 2015/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 49.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/08 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/03/08 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/03/09 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
THE SYSTEM SHOW SINCE THIS AFTERNOON SOME SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION
WITH IMPROVING BANDING IN THE LOW LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND
VIGOROUS AND MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION SINCE A FEW HOURS.
TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OR
SOUTH-EAST WITHIN A WEST TO WESTNORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTS AND OVER WARM
ENOUGH WATERS, SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER
TOMORROW EVENING, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT SOUTH OF 20S SHOULD LIMIT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCARENES ISLANDS WITH A HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
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