91S在編號兩小時之後撤編(更正:誤編91S)
殘餘03S再度評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 89.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. THIS AREA THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) AS A 131209Z AND 131102Z SSMIS CONTINUES TO
DEPICT. THE LLCC IS OVER 150 NM MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION, WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ACTUAL LLCC. WHILE DYNAMIC MODELS OVERDEVELOP THE WEAK SYSTEM,
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
(20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

中心對流重新爆發
數值看好後續能重新發展

確定以降格後的03S重編91S
03S.BAKUNG.25kts.1004mb.8.9S.89.2E
91S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8.9S.89.2E




原本91S帖刪除，改由03S原帖繼續討論。

MFR 一發報就判死刑。:lol

WTIO30 FMEE 130559
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20142015
1.A REMNANT LOW  3  (EX-BAKUNG)
2.A POSITION 2014/12/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 89.6 E
(NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/12/13 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H: 2014/12/14 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
36H: 2014/12/14 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2014/12/15 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2014/12/15 18 UTC: 8.8 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2014/12/16 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.0, CI=1.5
THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EX-BAKUNG IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT
ABOUT 150NM FROM THE CONVECTIVE BLOW UP.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 03Z CONFIRM THE INTENSITY AND SHOW A 10/20KT
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, REACHING LOCALLY 25/30KT IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT UNDER THE CONVECTION.
THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DO NOT REGENERATE THIS RESIDUAL SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.=

哇~ 這隻如果從高層看. 還真的看不出來這是個TC

但是底層還滿紮實的..SSMIS這張還是能看出又在發展底層..
似乎中間像是眼在發展



JTWC還沒有升格03S也是..有點意外

印尼（TCWC Jakarta）認為直接增強成二級熱帶氣旋並命名 Bakung，是 2010 年 Anggrek 以來首個由印尼命名的熱帶氣旋，看好成為三級強烈熱帶氣旋。



IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 14:12 UTC 11/12/2014
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 90S

SIKLON TROPIS: BAKUNG
Data pada: 11/1200 UTC
Lintang: 9.2LS
Bujur: 94.5BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 20 mil (35 km)
Arah gerak: barat (262 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 23 knots (43 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 570 mil (1050 km) barat daya
   Pada +12: 590 mil (1100 km) barat barat daya
   Pada +24: 670 mil (1230 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Kerinci
   Pada  +0: 570 mil (1060 km) barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 50 knots (95 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 70 knots (130 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1002 hPa
Intensitas: Storm
24 jam Intensitas: Storm

Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL: 30 mil (55 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 60 mil (110 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD: 60 mil (110 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL: 30 mil (55 km)

Radius angin Maksimum:   
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Tekanan pada isobar terluar:  
Radius isobar tertutup terluar:   
Ketebalan Vertikal Siklon: Sedang

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+ 6: 11/1800:   8.9LS   94.4BT: 035 (065):    050  (095):           1002:    070  (130)
+12: 12/0000:   9.1LS   93.9BT: 050 (095):    050  (095):           1002:    070  (130)
+18: 12/0600:   9.4LS   93.3BT: 065 (120):    055  (100):           1001:    075  (140)
+24: 12/1200:   9.6LS   92.8BT: 080 (150):    055  (100):           1001:    075  (140)
+36: 13/0000:  10.1LS   91.7BT: 110 (210):    060  (110):           1000:    085  (155)
+48: 13/1200:  10.4LS   90.3BT: 145 (270):    065  (120):            999:    090  (165)
+60: 14/0000:  10.7LS   89.3BT: 190 (355):    070  (130):            998:    100  (185)
+72: 14/1200:  10.7LS   88.5BT: 240 (445):    070  (130):            998:    100  (185)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk:  
Daerah Waspada Cuaca Buruk:  
Peringatan Dini Angin Kencang:  

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
This system is expected to develop rapidly and move slowly westward, upper level outflow are to the north west and to the south west, weak wind shear persist until next 72 hours

Futher Information call +62 21 6546315/18
Informasi selengkapnya hubungi 021 6546315

DAMPAK
Tropical cyclone Bakung has not give any impact for weather condition in Indonesia.

Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 11/1900 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.