NHC 09Z報文指出即將由副熱帶風暴轉為熱帶風暴

另外稍後將啟動飛機實測

SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

It appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics
as the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the
center, but it is not quite tropical yet. There is a small window
of opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during
the next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There
is no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial
intensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is
scheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is
anticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold
front in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models.

The initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is
expected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should
then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 26.7N  64.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 29.1N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  12/0600Z 32.2N  63.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  12/1800Z 35.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm FAY







補充:飛機實測已正式展開
以下放置自動更新數據

NHC 要升格 Seven 到副熱帶風暴並命名 Fay 了。

AL, 07, 2014101018,   , BEST,   0, 243N,  640W,  35, 1005, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,    0,    0,  120, 1011,  250, 100,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      SEVEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,         TRANSITIONED, alC92014 to al072014

升格為副熱帶低氣壓，預計 12 小時以後就能獲得命名。







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 23.8N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 25.1N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 26.8N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 29.4N  64.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 31.5N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED