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JMA: 996hPa |
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告訴你們，Cristobal 還沒死，之前從北冰洋登陸西伯利亞，現在還進入 JMA 地面天氣圖範圍。 |
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已轉化為溫帶氣旋，不過應該撐不到歐洲了。 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 45.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW |
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這幾小時形態明顯轉好，儘管移速很快但仍有完整的颶風結構。 |
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哇賽 NHC 除了預測這隻強度會有第二高峰 登陸冰島前還有 50KT 耶@@ 不過海溫並不支持 近入高緯後勢必將喪失熱帶性質 會增強到如此強度 根據NHC報文指出 可能是未來將與北方鋒面產生交互作用 產生的斜壓能 才能讓這個系統能有如此的風力... 所以這個系統未來可能將是一個強而有力的溫帶氣旋或副熱帶氣旋 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280832 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone. Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS ensemble mean. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 35.6N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 37.8N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 41.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 46.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 59.5N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila |
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好了，Cristobal 有個眼了，雖然還是很醜。:lol 應該不會像 Bertha 一樣跑到西歐去了。 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 27.2N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 29.4N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 31.9N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 33.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 36.4N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 43.0N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 50.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1200Z 58.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP |
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-26 09:18 編輯 AL, 04, 2014082600, , BEST, 0, 250N, 719W, 65, 989, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 180, 80, 30, 1007, 250, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTOBAL, M, 00Z速報給出65KT 推測是實測一度測得70KT就給C1 NOAA3第13次實測任務結束 對流有所好轉 只是底層還有待建立 補充:NHC0020Z發出修正報 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE |
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