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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-6-4 02:02 編輯 緊急升格為熱帶風暴鮑里斯（Tropical Storm Boris） 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 031754 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BORIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014 1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014 ...BORIS POISES A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE RISK FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 94.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PUERTO CHIAPAS MEXICO HAS ALREADY REPORTED 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN FROM BORIS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL...BORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
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已目前他這個樣子... 我覺得連登陸前命名的機會都偏低 不過GFS似乎預測 有機會進入墨西哥灣 但是不是同一個系統 我也不太確定... |
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升格02E 由於靠近陸地 強度不是很看好 但也不能排除近岸爆發的可能 INIT 02/2100Z 13.1N 94.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.5N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 15.3N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 15.6N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.0N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH |
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