轉化前夕MFR 00Z升STS
對流跟Ita一樣大爆發
只是毫無組織性= =
即將移過25S ,逐漸走向轉化之路

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/15/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  15  (IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 87.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 26 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 80 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 89.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 91.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 94.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/04/08 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 98.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 102.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/04/09 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 105.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 108.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

最新一張底層
疑似底層風眼要轉出來了 @@
對流也大量爆發 會不會有什麼驚喜
值得觀察 不過它的緯度也有點偏高了...

竟然30kts就升22S了...
強度應該會再調升

移速偏快加上環流廣泛整合不易
整體上強度是不被看好




預測超越24S海溫就不適合發展


不過明天命名應該還是有希望的