NRL已經撒編了....

駛流圖也已經看不到05W的環流，也幾乎看不見05W的底層，連機構分析也分析不到。

05W生命正式劃上句號。

JTWC : REMAINS MEDIUM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 05W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 120130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE MAX WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LOCATED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES ALONG THE FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.



GFS預測05W登陸菲東西移便散了....

中心附近已建立高層反氣旋   風切亦被反氣旋抵消  雖然強對流還是沒有覆蓋在LLCC上   但是近幾個小時 已經爆出少許對流

再降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 132E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR AS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINED BROAD, ILL-DEFINED, AND
EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
SEVERELY SHEARED WESTWARD BUT CONTINUES TO FLARE DUE TO A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND THE SCALED DOWN MODEL OUTLOOK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

沒什麼希望了= =

風切真的很大，不過已經弱了，最後發展要看他了。

今天我們中央氣象局方面也已經把琵琶颱風降格為低氣壓1000百帕，由於結構受到地型跟風切破壞今天04號颱風減弱為低氣壓。

由於 JMA 不把低壓區當熱帶氣旋處理，因此降格低壓區就等同宣布死亡，即便未來復活成為 TD 甚至 TS 也不會計入過去路徑，而會編為新系統。

琵琶降格的低壓區若重新增強為 TS，JMA 會編 1405 並命名塔巴。回顧今年 1 月，其實劍魚是從玲玲降格的低壓區發展而來。

另外，琵琶如此頹圮多少是南半球的 Ita 所害。