Meow 發表於 2014-3-14 22:46
我不曉得這個論壇是誰開的，但我知道天氣現象怎樣不是美國說了算，NRL 撤編、斐濟沒撤編，就不該列為過去氣 ...

關於這個部分 我們版務之間會再做討論...
因為論壇發帖標準除RSMC-Tokyo升格TD 之外
為怕發生編號錯亂 一律都是照NRL去做標準的...

我不曉得這個論壇是誰開的，但我知道天氣現象怎樣不是美國說了算，NRL 撤編、斐濟沒撤編，就不該列為過去氣旋，要知道南太平洋的 RSMC 是斐濟開的不是美國開的，台灣颱風論壇不要當美國的喉舌。

NRL跟FNMOC皆看不到Hadi的蹤跡了
大概已被撤編 不過FMS仍維持Tropical Disturbance 20F
報文中提到受到中到強烈風切的影響
目前環境對他暫時不利....
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 170.0E
AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD20F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED
MUCH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

19p.Hadi 風暴從今天雲圖看起來過去一天組織略微擴張強度也略增，雲圖顯示這個氣旋目前正一路向東移動中...。

預測顯示那個吉莉安. 還有機會出海增強後移到印度洋海域 = =  而94W預測也是一個颱風. 接近菲律賓

中心過160E
由BoM轉交FMS發報
FMS早上編號20F

只是定位輸入有誤
下午第二報才確定是19P

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1000HPA] WAS
ANALYSED NEAR 12.5S 165.2E
AT 130600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD20F SLOW MOVING. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION DECREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND
MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

受限於垂直風切
結構趨於散架...
目前無論從衛星雲圖貨式底層掃瞄皆看不出有LLCC的存在...
不過GFS仍持續看好掉頭後有再度增強的可能





粗略定位大約是在X的地方

說到19p.Hadi風暴今天實在看不出來它跑去那了不過從雲圖觀察疑似併入這團低壓雲帶裡了...。