看在BoM給出930hPa 放的巔峰

一直覺得Colin核心很小. 維持時間偏短
記得JTWC年鑑好像從115kts升格至120kts

WTIO30 FMEE 111838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20132014

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (COLIN)



2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 79.2 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM

Colin繼續增強，MFR最新一報升格ITC，給95KT

大爆發，JTWC 給 90 節，MFR 更直接給到 85 節了。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 111212
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20132014
   
5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (COLIN)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 79.7 E
   
8. (SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL
   
9. SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
   
10. MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
    
11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
    
12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
    
13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
    
14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
    
15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
16. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 170
    
17. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90
    
18. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
    
19. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
    
20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
    
21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
22. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
23. 12H: 2014/01/12 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
    
24. CYCLONE
    
25. 24H: 2014/01/12 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
    
26. CYCLONE
    
27. 36H: 2014/01/13 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
    
28. CYCLONE
    
29. 48H: 2014/01/13 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
    
30. CYCLONE
    
31. 60H: 2014/01/14 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
    
32. TROPICAL STORM
    
33. 72H: 2014/01/14 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
    
34. TROPICAL STORM
    
35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
36. 96H: 2014/01/15 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
    
37. EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
    
38. 120H: 2014/01/16 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
    
39. EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
    
40. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
    
41. T=CI=5.5-
    
42. THIS SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE, HAS GONE THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
43. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. AN EYE ALSO OF SMALL SIZE VISIBLE SINCE
    
44. 06UTC HAS QUICKLY  WARMED UP. INTENSITY AT 00UTC, AND 06UTC HAS BEEN
    
45. REVIEWED RESPECTIVELY AT 3.5 AND 4.0.  DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
    
46. THE CONTRAINTS RULES OF 1.0 IN 6 HOURS HAS BEEN BROKEN.
    
47. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD, ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
    
48. THE MID-TROPOSHERIC HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT DAYS, IT IS
    
49. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS REGULAR TRACK. FROM TUESDAY 14, THE
    
50. TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A POLAR
    
51. TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
52. FOR THIS FORECAST TRACK. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS A VERY GOOD
    
53. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TRACK.
    
54. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE WIND-SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO
    
55. REMAIN WEAK  WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL
    
56. SHOULD ALWAYS BENEFIT TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT HOURS, AS THE SST
    
57. BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO BECOME MARGINAL TOMORROW.
    
58. THUS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY.FROM
    
59. MONDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST AND THE
    
60. STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
    
61. WEAKEN AND THEN UNDERGO A EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TUESDAY AND
    
62. WEDNESDAY.=

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高層風眼正在打開 可能會迅速增強