最新 !!

法國氣象局再分析計畫, 下修Bruce強度
MFR
912hPa ---> 920hPa
125kts ----> 120kts

旋風 - 布魯斯   140kts   今年全球第6個C5.


南半球風季正式展開

讓我們認識他霸氣的風場吧!

沒意外的話...
他已經成為西南印繼2004年Gafilo以來
最強的熱帶氣旋
MFR這一報直接上修125kt

WTIO30 FMEE 220045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20132014
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
  WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 79.9 E
  (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 912 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 125 KT
  RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  28 KT NE: 320 SE: 450 SW: 320 NW: 310
  34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 230
  48 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 170
  64 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
  12H: 2013/12/22 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24H: 2013/12/23 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  36H: 2013/12/23 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  48H: 2013/12/24 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  60H: 2013/12/24 12 UTC: 30.5 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  72H: 2013/12/25 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  96H: 2013/12/26 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 98.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

終於攻頂C5了~~~!
拿一張18Z的IR

MFR18Z110KT +12hr估115KT
看來無法達到二次巔峰

目前NRL這邊給出了140KT!!
先前乾空氣的捲入似乎有改善 不過MFR那邊會否把強度調上來就不知道了