已命名Priscilla!不過強度不太看好

1. ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
   
2. TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
   
3. 
   
4. TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
   
5. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
   
6. 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2013
   
7. 
   
8. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
   
9. 
   
10. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.7W AT 14/0900Z
    
11. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
12. 
    
13. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  10 KT
    
14. 
    
15. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
    
16. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    
17. 34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
    
18. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
    
19. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    
20. MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
21. 
    
22. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.7W AT 14/0900Z
    
23. AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 115.8W
    
24. 
    
25. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W
    
26. MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    
27. 34 KT... 30NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
    
28. 
    
29. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.1W
    
30. MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    
31. 34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
    
32. 
    
33. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 115.1W
    
34. MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    
35. 34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
    
36. 
    
37. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.2N 115.7W
    
38. MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    
39. 34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
    
40. 
    
41. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W
    
42. MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
43. 
    
44. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    
45. ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
46. 
    
47. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
48. MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
49. 
    
50. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
51. MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
52. 
    
53. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.7W
    
54. 
    
55. NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
    
56. 
    
57. $
    
58. FORECASTER BROWN
    

複製代碼

JTWC以經發出TCFA囉
由於與15E相當靠近 不排除未來會有互旋的情形發生
兩者窩度也幾乎連在一起了


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 116.7W, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN CARLOS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRALSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MILDLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.