JTWC : LOW AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.5N 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPARSE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD (~350 NM DIAMETER), ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 052153Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC, WITH WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) INNER-CORE WINDS AND STRONGER (20-25 KNOTS) WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION PRODUCT INDICATES A SLIGHTLY COLD- CORE SYSTEM WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER MARGINAL SST CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A SYMMETRIC COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND THUS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
已經飄到中太了 不過緯度已經越來越高 未來應該會逐漸轉化... 不過現在看起來也是個溫帶氣旋樣了~~ |