開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入
搜索

24S.Jamala 發出FW

阿隆关注
查看數: 15819 評論數: 17 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中，請稍候......
發佈時間: 2013-5-4 02:55

正文摘要:

  中度熱帶風暴      編號：11 R ( 24 S )        名稱：Jamala   基本資料    　擾動編號日期：2013 年 05 月 08 日 20 時 　命名日期　 ...

Meow 發表於 2013-5-11 22:46
從命名到 MFR 發佈最後警報竟然都沒人理？:Q

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 111234 CCA
  2. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
  3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20122013
  6. 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  11  (EX-JAMALA)
  7. 2.A POSITION 2013/05/11 AT 1200 UTC:
  8. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 87.5 E
  9. (TEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
  17. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
  18. 1.B FORECASTS:
  19. 12H: 2013/05/12 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  20. 24H: 2013/05/12 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  21. 36H: 2013/05/13 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  22. 48H: 2013/05/13 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  23. 60H: 2013/05/14 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  24. 72H: 2013/05/14 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  25. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  26. 96H: 2013/05/15 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  27. 120H: 2013/05/16 12 UTC: 10.1 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
  28. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
  29. ****************CORRECTIVE ON THE WARNING NUMBER********************
  30. EX-JAMALA KEEPS ON WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
  31. WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST GENERALLY A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTIO
  32. N. SUNDAY, WITHIN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. EX-JAMALA IS TH
  33. EREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARDS TRACK. IT SHOULD REMAIN ON
  34. THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  35. ON THIS TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH ONLY PO
  36. LEWARD INFLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, FROM MONDAY.
  37. RE-GENERATION OF EX-JAMALA IS NOW VERY UNLIKELY. THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP DETERMINISTIC MODELS (CEP,
  38. ARPEGE, ALADIN, UKMO ...) AND THE LAST ECMWF NWP EXCLUDE THE RE-GENERATION SCENARIO.
  39. LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
複製代碼

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入

x

點評

jwpk9899
多數人只關注西太的TC是其中一個原因，再加上大家都跑去關注01B所以更沒人理囉~  發表於 2013-5-12 18:56

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
阿隆 + 5 這裡還是以西太關注為主,要習以為常!.

查看全部評分

Meow 發表於 2013-5-10 15:07

中等熱帶風暴加馬拉（Jamala）

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2013-5-10 15:29 編輯

MFR 稍早升格並由模里西斯命名之。

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 100646
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20122013
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  11  (JAMALA)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2013/05/10 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 86.1 E
  8. (EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE
  9. DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 310 NW: 240
  17. 34 KT NE:  SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
  18. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
  19. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
  20. 1.B FORECASTS:
  21. 12H: 2013/05/10 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
  22. TROPICAL STORM
  23. 24H: 2013/05/11 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
  24. TROPICAL STORM
  25. 36H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 10.2 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
  26. TROPICAL STORM
  27. 48H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 10.4 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
  28. TROPICAL STORM
  29. 60H: 2013/05/12 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
  30. TROPICAL STORM
  31. 72H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 10.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
  32. TROPICAL STORM
  33. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  34. 96H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
  35. TROPICAL STORM
  36. 120H: 2013/05/15 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
  37. TROPICAL STORM
  38. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
  39. T=CI=2.5+
  40. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE WEST THANKS TO THE FIRST
  41. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. GENERAL PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS
  42. IMPROVED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. LLCC IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION
  43. THAT IS PRESENT WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT WIND-SHEAR. SYSTEM HAS BEEN
  44. NAMED JAMALA AT 0500Z BY METEO MAURITIUS.
  45. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ON A SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER THE
  46. SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NORTH OF THE
  47. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS STRONG BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
  48. RELAX TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
  49. TOMORROW , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
  50. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND THEN WIND-SHEAR SHOULD CLEARLY DECREASE AS THE
  51. LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS EFFICIENT OVER THE BOTH SIDES (EQUATORIAL
  52. WESTERLY BURST AND SUBTROPICAL BELT EXISTING EAST OF 70E). THIS GOOD
  53. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY AND THEN SYSTEM
  54. MAY DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
  55. WITHIN THE MID LEVELS, A RIDGE BUILDS UP SUNDAY AND A SHORTWAVE
  56. TROUGH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THIS PATTERN, A SLOW
  57. DOWN OF THE TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARDS THEN
  58. SOUTH-WESTWARD DRIFT. MONDAY, THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND A
  59. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A WESTWARD TURN
  60. WITH A FASTER MOTION.
  61. TUESDAY AND BEYOND, NORTH-EASTERLY THEN NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
  62. ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN
  63. UNDERGOING THIS STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR.
  64. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS AND SOME MEMBERS OF
  65. THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE LESS INTENSE AND
  66. COULD TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD A BIT LONGER
  67. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL
  68. WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO IS LOWER IN VIEW
  69. OF THE LAST RUN. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN THE GENERAL
  70. PHILOSOPHY OF ECMWF (MORE WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST) AND AMERICAN
  71. MODEL FORECAST TRACKS THAT ARE CONSISTENT FOR A WHILE NOW.=
複製代碼

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入

x
Meow 發表於 2013-5-9 17:21
MFR 根據 CI2.5 評價 30 節的熱帶低氣壓第 11 號，倒是 JTWC 根據 CI2.0 竟評價熱帶氣旋 24S 為 40 節。




WTIO30 FMEE 090630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  11
2.A POSITION 2013/05/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.9 S / 85.6 E
(SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 70 SW: 240 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/05/09 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/05/10 06 UTC: 8.5 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/05/10 18 UTC: 9.1 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/05/11 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT LOW LEVEL VORTEX REMAINS HOWEVER PARTIALLY  EXPOSED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTION.
0402Z METOP-B ASCAT SWATH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT ASSYMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT ALL AROUND THE
CENTRE EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOWEVER SHEARED BUT AN INTENFY WINDOW IS EXPECTED
TO EXIST FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.=

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 5 即時訊息

查看全部評分

Meow 發表於 2013-5-8 22:54
這次不曉得怎麼了，JTWC 已經升格熱帶氣旋，MFR 卻連熱帶擾動都還沒有。
krichard2011 發表於 2013-5-8 22:52
JTWC的TC預報圖出來了
誤差圈超大
未來預測將沿著10S緯度線西行
強度上看Cat.1


本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
阿隆 + 5 改完標想來PO這張...印證下課夜間異於其它.

查看全部評分

jwpk9899 發表於 2013-5-8 21:16
升格24S
24S.INVEST 08 MAY 2013 1300Z

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +8 收起 理由
阿隆 + 8 下課晚間即時搶PO真的異於白天.

查看全部評分

本平台僅供學術討論之用，預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站為虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
 廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
 官方粉專
 發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表