終於LOW了 (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2N 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM EAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220144Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. A 211902Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC AND LACK OF CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
好的 就RAMMB的風場 和NRL底層掃描來看 這95B的LLCC整體而言算是頗弱的 其實這隻就是沒有甚麼深層對流(出自Wayan副總監) |