REMARKS:040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 75.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER THE EFFECTS OF STRONG (40-KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 040414Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30-KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE LLCC APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 6 DEGREES TO THE WEST AND CLOSING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG VWS OVER TC 04S. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY UNFAVORABLE 25 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 04S WILL SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET.//NNNN



差不多要散了
巔峰
jtwc:90kts

BENILDE會是一個小而具有相當強度威力的旋風

好久沒來囉~


目前BENILDE處於風眼構成之後整理的階段
南面的結構偏差 較為薄弱
還可以再修一修 當然未來前景看好^_^

JTWC 第4報 依舊測預上90KTS
REMARKS:292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 82.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASE IN SYMMETRY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE LLCC IN THE IR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE VALUE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERCOMING THE VWS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING, DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 04S WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RE-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//NNNN

命名BENILDE

JTWC第二報(預測上90KTS)



才沒注意幾天就上TS了...