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登陸消散囉~ 墨西哥西岸第2彈 稍晚irwin也要去了 全狙擊~厲害~ |
| 12E!!但是剛生成就登陸了= =囧 消散前達成東太三旋也不錯了 |
被JOVA牽制 所以滯留又導致環境場減弱 就取消TCFA了 = =又一個被JOVA所害 |
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WTPN21 PHNC 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION// REF/A/RMG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090251Z OCT 11// AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 100300)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 95.9W HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KTS AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCLUDING ONE FROM A 100230Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS (EXACERBATED BY AN OPPOSING STORM MOTION), THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.// NNNN TCFA取消 東太3旋無望 
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本帖最後由 ... 於 2011-10-10 10:56 編輯 發展不穩定加上環境沒有很好 命名還要再等~ 加油阿~東太三旋! ---------------------------------------------- 
風切太大讓未來發展之路飽受考驗! |
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURESYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPECHAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARDOR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 升了又降...99E能不能發展上TS? |
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本來想說JTWC什麼時候取消TCFA了明明還在= = 看了4樓了解了，不過我現在連不上JTWC 
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組圖打開中，請稍候......