| 90w我從一開始就沒有看好他的發展，輻散輻合差到不行，中心常常是裸露的，雲係消消長長，升評降評好幾次了，對流也不好，看來後續的發展也是持續下去，不會有顯著的發展。 |
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 118.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND DISPERSED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN, EVEN ON A 090937Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWING, AT BEST, A TROUGH OVER THE SUSPECT AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VWS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS RADIAL OUTLFLOW HAS GREATLY REDUCED. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND LESS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. 被降評LOW 翻譯了一下，不過我英文很差 == 對流的分散 低層中心很難看出 沒有高層流出 |
本帖最後由 颱風迷 於 2011-10-9 11:17 編輯 
底層風場由東風佔據,明顯的越赤道氣流褪去 導致強度上沒有強力支持一直都是緩慢發展的情況 也因此 
整個幅合區相當糟糕,不過偏西風本就有一定週期性,未來可以等等 而高層的風場則相當混亂 
不過值得注意的是南高的脊線似乎有壓到90w,高層出現反氣旋,幅散有所加強 未來的ec有報出他有進一步增強的情形,但後來沒有進一步是猜測進入南高範圍垂直風切開始增大,但未來還是可以觀察90w的動態 我猜90或92 日本氣象廳擇其一會有動作^^ 看看預言準不準囉xd |
90和92都升格MEDIUM，但中心附近無對流... 等可見光出來再看看 |
組圖打開中，請稍候......
