由於NHC沿用了John 名字
因此宣告 約翰正式復活
此帖將併入約翰討論帖

1. 000
   
2. WTPZ45 KNHC 251456
   
3. TCDEP5
   
4. 
   
5. Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  11
   
6. NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
   
7. 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024
   
8. 
   
9. John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico.  The
   
10. CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity,
    
11. likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have
    
12. merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough.  
    
13. Convection has gradually become better organized based on
    
14. geostationary infrared and visibly imagery.  An AMSR2 microwave pass
    
15. at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a
    
16. well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has
    
17. given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this
    
18. advisory.
    
19. 
    
20. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen
    
21. in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water.  
    
22. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining
    
23. weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea
    
24. surface temperatures.  Statistical guidance even suggests there is
    
25. an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification.  
    
26. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak
    
27. intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and
    
28. at the top of the guidance envelope.  However, there is a chance
    
29. John may become a hurricane prior to landfall.
    
30. 
    
31. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with
    
32. an estimate motion of 80/2 kt.  Models indicate that John will
    
33. gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly
    
34. towards the coast on Thursday.  Regional and global models vary the
    
35. timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models
    
36. showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF
    
37. lingering offshore until Friday.  The official track forecast calls
    
38. for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on
    
39. Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this
    
40. timing.  A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
    
41. issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of
    
42. southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future
    
43. forecasts for updates.
    
44. 
    
45. KEY MESSAGES:
    
46. 
    
47. 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
    
48. coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday.  The additional
    
49. rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
    
50. heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days.   This heavy rainfall
    
51. will likely cause significant and  catastrophic, life-threatening
    
52. flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,  
    
53. Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.
    
54. 
    
55. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
    
56. Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of
    
57. the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical
    
58. storm conditions could begin later today.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
61. 
    
62. INIT  25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
    
63. 12H  26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
    
64. 24H  26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
65. 36H  27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
66. 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
    
67. 60H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
68. 
    
69. $$
    
70. Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

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