(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.3N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 43 NM SOUTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 252059Z
89GHZ SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION AS WELL AS
FORMATIVE AND FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN PORTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95W WITH WARM (29-30C) SST,
A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 95W IS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND A PREDOMINANTLY LOW (10-15KTS) VWS.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
OF 95W WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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