開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入
搜索

24S.Ialy 南印度洋低緯度熱帶風暴

alu关注
查看數: 5075 評論數: 9 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中，請稍候......
發佈時間: 2024-5-13 20:50

正文摘要:

  強烈熱帶風暴   編號：11-20232024 ( 24 S ) 名稱：IALY   基本資料      擾動編號日期　：2024 年 05 月 13 日 14 時 JTWC升格日期：2024 年 05 月 16 日 14 ...

krichard2011 發表於 2024-5-23 19:50
MFR已認定減弱為一個低氣壓
最高強度JTWC有一度達到65KT CAT1 等級
以下是巔峰時期
Auqa拍攝到的真實色彩影像
紀錄一下~

snapshot-2024-05-21T00_00_00Z.jpg
  1. 24S IALY 240522 1800 2.7S 41.8E SHEM 25 1006
  2. 24S IALY 240522 1200 3.1S 41.8E SHEM 30 1006
  3. 24S IALY 240522 0600 3.4S 41.9E SHEM 35 1006
  4. 24S IALY 240522 0000 3.7S 41.9E SHEM 45 996
  5. 24S IALY 240521 1800 4.1S 41.9E SHEM 60 993
  6. 24S IALY 240521 1200 4.7S 42.1E SHEM 65 987
  7. 24S IALY 240521 0600 4.9S 42.5E SHEM 65 987
  8. 24S IALY 240521 0000 5.2S 43.0E SHEM 55 994
  9. 24S IALY 240520 1800 5.7S 43.3E SHEM 55 994
  10. 24S IALY 240520 1200 6.0S 43.5E SHEM 55 994
  11. 24S IALY 240520 0600 6.2S 44.0E SHEM 50 994
  12. 24S IALY 240520 0000 6.5S 44.5E SHEM 55 992
  13. 24S IALY 240519 1800 6.9S 44.8E SHEM 60 989
  14. 24S IALY 240519 1200 7.3S 45.3E SHEM 60 989
  15. 24S IALY 240519 0600 7.6S 45.9E SHEM 55 992
  16. 24S IALY 240519 0000 7.5S 46.6E SHEM 55 992
  17. 24S IALY 240518 1800 7.7S 47.1E SHEM 50 995
  18. 24S IALY 240518 1200 7.9S 47.8E SHEM 45 997
  19. 24S IALY 240518 0600 7.9S 48.6E SHEM 40 1002
  20. 24S IALY 240518 0000 8.0S 49.2E SHEM 40 1002
  21. 24S IALY 240517 1800 8.5S 49.9E SHEM 40 1002
  22. 24S IALY 240517 1200 8.8S 50.4E SHEM 40 1002
  23. 24S IALY 240517 0600 9.0S 51.0E SHEM 45 999
  24. 24S IALY 240517 0000 9.1S 51.8E SHEM 40 999
  25. 24S IALY 240516 1800 9.1S 52.2E SHEM 40 997
  26. 24S IALY 240516 1200 9.1S 52.5E SHEM 40 997
  27. 24S IALY 240516 0600 8.6S 52.9E SHEM 35 999
  28. 24S IALY 240516 0000 8.3S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  29. 24S IALY 240515 1800 8.1S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  30. 24S IALY 240515 1200 8.2S 53.0E SHEM 30 1005
  31. 24S IALY 240515 0600 7.9S 52.8E SHEM 30 1005
  32. 24S IALY 240515 0000 8.0S 52.4E SHEM 25 1005
  33. 24S IALY 240514 1800 8.5S 52.9E SHEM 25 1005
  34. 24S IALY 240514 1200 9.1S 53.0E SHEM 25 1004
  35. 24S IALY 240514 0600 9.6S 53.8E SHEM 20 1005
  36. 24S IALY 240514 0000 9.0S 54.3E SHEM 20 1005
複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-22 23:00
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 221224
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20232024
  6. 1.A FILLING UP 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 1200 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9 S / 42.7 E
  10. (TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
  15. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
  16. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
  17. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

  19. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  20. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185

  22. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  23. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

  25. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  26. 12H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 2.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

  28. 24H: 2024/05/23 12 UTC: 1.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING





  34. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  35. NIL


  38. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  39. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY HAS COMPLETELY LOST ITS STRUCTURE, WITH
  40. CONVECTION WEAKENING AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTER.

  42. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE TRACK
  43. CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
  44. OF AFRICA.

  46. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE
  47. (MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER) AND WILL CAUSE
  48. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
  49. WINDS OF 30-25KT MAY STILL PERSIST FOR A LITTLE LONGER.

  51. LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
  52. REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
  53. AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
  54. THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-22 17:00
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220646
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20232024
  6. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0600 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
  10. (THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 75

  24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  27. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  28. 12H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.5 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING






  35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  36. NIL


  39. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  40. T=2.0 CI=3.0-

  42. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND IALY HAS CHANGED LITTLE BUT
  43. IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE IMAGES GPM FROM
  44. 0232 AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 0311 STILL SHOW AN EYE IN 37HGZ BUT
  45. WEAKENING, AND DRY AIR STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. IALY IS
  46. MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 35KT, BUT IALY
  47. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  49. IALY'S FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO ITS IMMINENT RAPID
  50. DISSIPATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE
  51. NORTHWARD TRACK IS BEING MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED
  52. NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL
  53. BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX
  54. WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE EQUATOR, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE THE
  55. CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT FORECASTS!

  57. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
  58. RAPIDLY. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE TO THE
  59. COAST OF AFRICA, IALY'S WEAK STRUCTURE CANNOT BE MAINTAINED. WITH
  60. CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, THE INTENSITY OF IALY
  61. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
  62. WILL BE REUNITED, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  63. LONGER.

  65. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  67. KENYA AND SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  68. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-22 11:00
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220037
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20232024
  6. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0000 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
  10. (THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100

  24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

  27. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  28. 12H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
  29. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110

  31. 24H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  38. NIL


  41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  42. T=2.5 CI=3.5-

  44. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.
  45. REMAINING IN A CURVED BAND, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS LOSING
  46. CONSISTENCY, LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR A SHORT
  47. TIME YET. A T OF 2.5 CAN BE ESTIMATED, WHILE INERTIA KEEPS CI AT
  48. 3.5-. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WIND
  49. IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH INERTIA, AND MAXIMUM WINDS
  50. OF AROUND 40KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IALY
  51. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  53. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-TERM AS IT FASTENED TO DISAPPEAR.
  54. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE NORTHERLY
  55. TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE
  56. TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
  57. IF, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  58. THE EQUATOR, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT
  59. FORECASTS!

  61. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY
  62. DETERIORATING. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE
  63. TO THE AFRICAN COAST, THE WEAK IALY STRUCTURE IS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN
  64. ITSELF. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, IALY'S INTENSITY
  65. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE
  66. MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  67. LONGER.


  70. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  72. TANZANIA:
  73. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  74. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  76. KENYA :
  77. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  78. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
  79. WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

  81. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  82. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-22 05:01
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211837
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1800 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  25. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  26. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  28. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  29. 12H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  30. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
  31. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

  33. 24H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  39. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  40. NIL


  43. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  44. PT=4.0- CI=4.5-

  46. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED: INITIALLY
  47. WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION UP TO 14UTC, CONVECTION RAPIDLY
  48. INVADED THE CENTER, LEAVING IALY IN A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. IN
  49. THE FINAL MOMENTS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WARMED UP, LEAVING A
  50. LARGER SHARE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. IN SUCH A
  51. CONFIGURATION, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 4.0- CAN BE MADE AND, DUE TO
  52. INERTIA, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5-. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
  53. SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ITS RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND
  54. INERTIA CAN BE ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, AND PARTIALLY
  55. VALIDATED BY A SMOS DATA OF 47KT AT 1451UTC AND A SAR DATA OF 50KT AT
  56. 1524UTC, WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55KT, LEAVING IALY AT THE STAGE OF A
  57. STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

  59. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-LIMITED DUE TO ITS FAST FOLLOWING
  60. DISAPPEARANCE. WHEREAS, DURING PREVIOUS NETWORKS, THE SYSTEM
  61. CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER
  62. THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, THE LATEST
  63. ANALYSIS POINTS VALIDATE THE NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE WEAKENING OF
  64. THE SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTING FLOW DOMINATES. AS THE TRADE
  65. WINDS SKIRT THE COAST OF AFRICA, THEY SHOULD GUIDE THE TRACK
  66. NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12H. IT WILL BE
  67. INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  68. THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
  69. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS!

  71. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD SO
  72. FAR, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT
  73. ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE MODELS PREDICTED A MORE PRONOUNCED
  74. SHEAR, EXPLAINING IN PART THEIR TENDENCY TO PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
  75. (TO WHICH IS ADDED THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, A CHARACTERISTIC
  76. THAT MODELS WITH SOMEWHAT COARSE RESOLUTION FIND HARD TO GRASP), THE
  77. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
  78. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EFFECT ON VORTEX STRUCTURE. IN THE CASE
  79. OF A SMALL SYSTEM, THIS LEADS TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY,
  80. AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, THE
  81. CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET.

  83. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  85. TANZANIA:
  86. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  87. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  89. KENYA :
  90. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  91. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  93. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  94. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-21 23:00
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211240
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20232024
  6. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
  24. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

  26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  29. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  30. 12H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  31. TROPICAL STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 165
  33. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 95

  35. 24H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  41. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  42. NIL


  45. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  46. T=CI=4.5-

  48. BETWEEN 06 AND 09UTC, IALY'S EYE PATTERN BECAME BETTER DEFINED,
  49. LEADING TO SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY RISING TO 4.5.
  50. BETWEEN 09 AND 12UTC, THE EYE THEN WARMED UP A LITTLE, LOWERING THE
  51. DT, BUT IT IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
  52. SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 09UTC IS THUS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, KEPT
  53. AS SUCH AT 12UTC BY INERTIA ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED.
  54. IALY IS THEREFORE AN HISTORICALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THE
  55. NORTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN: IT IS NOT ONLY THE FIRST TROPICAL
  56. STORM BUT ALSO THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF
  57. 5S/45E IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO
  58. THE KENYAN COAST).

  60. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  61. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER
  62. TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO THE FINAL STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK HAS
  63. THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM,
  64. CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM
  65. TONIGHT ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
  66. TAKEN UP BY LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
  67. AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD THEN
  68. NORTHEASTWARD.

  70. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  71. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  72. EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. FROM TONIGHT, WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
  73. MORE IMPACTFUL AND SHOULD START TO DISRUPT THE VORTEX AND ENABLE DRY
  74. AIR INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM. A RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THUS
  75. SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  77. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  79. TANZANIA:
  80. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  81. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  83. KENYA :
  84. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  85. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  87. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  88. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-21 17:00
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210657
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0600 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 220
  22. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  25. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  26. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  28. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  29. 12H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  30. TROPICAL STORM
  31. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 205
  32. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100

  34. 24H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 1.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  35. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100





  41. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  42. NIL


  45. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  46. T=CI=4.0+

  48. IALY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 00 AND 06UTC.
  49. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 4.5, WITH AN EYE
  50. PATTERN BEGINNING TO FORM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
  51. IMPROVING STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A
  52. SOLID, COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE REMARKABLY
  53. RESISTANT TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. A 0602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS
  54. OF AT LEAST 55KT. THE INTENSITY AT 06UTC IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 60
  55. KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY BE TEMPORARILY
  56. REACHED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE EYE PATTERN CONTINUES. IALY IS
  57. AN EXCEPTIONALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THIS NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
  58. BASIN: IT IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF 5S/45E
  59. IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO THE
  60. KENYAN COAST).

  62. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  63. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO
  64. THE FINAL STEERING FLOW IS PROBABLY GREATER THAN FORECAST. THE TRACK
  65. HAS THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM, CLOSER TO
  66. THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
  67. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TAKEN UP BY THE
  68. LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AFRICAN
  69. COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD.

  71. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  72. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  73. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT A
  74. SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY TODAY. FROM TONIGHT, AS WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE
  75. IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, A RAPID
  76. WEAKENING TREND SHOULD SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  78. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  80. TANZANIA:
  81. - RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSE TO 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS ON PEMBA ISLAND
  82. UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  84. KENYA :
  85. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  86. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

  88. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  89. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

複製代碼
kingchard2011 發表於 2024-5-21 12:01
此文為自動發布
熱帶氣旋報文資料建檔

MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210109
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0000 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
  10. (FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 195 NW: 240
  22. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 120
  23. 48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 60 NW: 55
  24. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

  26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
  27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  29. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  30. 12H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 4.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  31. TROPICAL STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 95
  33. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

  35. 24H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  36. TROPICAL STORM
  37. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 140
  38. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

  40. 36H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  41. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 130




  46. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  47. NIL


  50. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  51. T=4.0- CI=4.0-

  53. CONVECTION WITHIN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS NOT CHANGED
  54. MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24
  55. HOURS, ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES. THE SYSTEM'S PATTERN
  56. LOOKS LIKE A CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS, WITH A DIVERGENCE OF
  57. ALTITUDE STILL WELL PRESENT. THE ASCAT METOP-C SWATH AT 1813Z
  58. MEASURES AN AVERAGE WIND FORCE OF 50KT, ENABLING US TO POSITION THE
  59. CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
  60. DVORAK INTENSITY AND TO CHOOSE A MAXIMUM MEAN WIND FORCE SLIGHTLY
  61. HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES, THIS IS TO SAY 55KT.

  63. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IN COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY KEEPS
  64. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
  65. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
  66. TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE
  67. TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING
  68. ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD REDIRECT ITS TRACK NORTHWARDS.
  69. LATER, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DRIVES A WESTERLY FLOW
  70. WHICH SHOULD CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STORM
  71. DISSIPATES. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALLOW US TO
  72. ESTABLISH A CONSONSUS ON A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR A
  73. SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

  75. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  76. RATHER GOOD, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, STRONG
  77. OCEAN POTENTIAL AND, LAST BUT NOT LEAST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
  78. DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS A STRONG
  79. TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD
  80. BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
  81. LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING,
  82. UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WENESDAY.

  84. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA AND SOUTHERN
  85. SOMALIA COAST.=

複製代碼

本平台僅供學術討論之用，預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站為虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
 廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
 官方粉專
 發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表