JMA 00Z升格為TD，另雲型有明顯流出被限制情況

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 119E WEST SLOWLY.

最新歐洲數值模式
預估沿著中南半島以東近海北上

已經進入南海南部
未來５天向西慢速移動

根據最新氣象模式顯示
９３Ｗ下週有進一步增強的趨勢
初步研判會往越南到海南島間
雖然影響台灣的機率微乎其微
但也許是西南季風往北擴展的開端！

距離編擾約24小時，JTWC評級Medium
JMA亦於04/30/18Z判定為LPA，已有閉合環流
各全球模式有明顯訊號，趨向菲律賓-南海一帶

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010931Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93W
TO HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND WARM SSTS (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.