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18S.Ilsa 升格澳式C5 登陸西北澳 衝擊澳洲年度風王

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    組圖打開中，請稍候......
發佈時間: 2023-4-6 03:49

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2023-4-17 16:47 編輯   五級強烈熱帶氣旋   編號：23U ( 18 S ) 名稱：Ilsa   基本資料   擾動編號日期　：2023 年 04 月 06 日 02 時 JTWC ...

蜜露 發表於 2023-4-15 02:44
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2023-4-15 02:46 編輯


一開始上望就很看好，很快就發展起來了

莎莎上班很累，下班不到幾小時就睡著了
這幾年慢慢退出颱風這塊領域

20230413.0630.himawari-9.ir.18S.ILSA.130kts.926mb.18.7S.118.7E.100pc.jpg

20230413.0909.f16.91h.18S.ILSA.130kts.929mb.18.7S.118.7E.065pc.jpg

931.7hPa的實測 十分鐘風速好像破澳洲紀錄?



krichard2011 發表於 2023-4-14 00:24
ILSA稍早登陸De Grey 與 Pardoo 之間
download.png

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa at 12:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 215 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 295 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.9 degrees South 119.6 degrees East, estimated to be 115 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland and 30 kilometres northwest of Pardoo Roadhouse.
Movement: southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, category 5, is crossing the coast between De Grey and Pardoo Roadhouse.

Observations at Bedout Island, offshore of the east Pilbara coast, recorded severe tropical cyclone winds of 218 km/h with gusts of 288 km/h.

A very destructive wind impact is occurring along the coast and adjacent inland parts between De Grey and Pardoo Roadhouse.

During Friday, Ilsa is forecast to maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it tracks past Telfer and further inland across the Northern Interior district and the northern parts of the Southern Interior district. Ilsa is then expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength overnight Friday as it moves into southern parts of the Northern Territory.


補12Z 報文
  1. IDW27600
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  4. at: 1241 UTC 13/04/2023
  5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
  6. Identifier: 23U
  7. Data At: 1200 UTC
  8. Latitude: 19.4S
  9. Longitude: 119.1E
  10. Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
  11. Movement Towards: south southeast (155 deg)
  12. Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
  13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots (215 km/h)
  14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots (295 km/h)
  15. Central Pressure: 928 hPa
  16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
  17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
  19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
  20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
  21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
  22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
  23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
  24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km)
  25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
  26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
  27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
  28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
  29. FORECAST DATA
  30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
  31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
  32. +06:  13/1800: 20.2S 119.9E:     030 (050):  100  (185):  944
  33. +12:  14/0000: 21.1S 121.2E:     040 (070):  075  (140):  967
  34. +18:  14/0600: 21.9S 123.0E:     045 (085):  060  (110):  979
  35. +24:  14/1200: 22.3S 125.2E:     055 (100):  045  (085):  991
  36. +36:  15/0000: 23.0S 130.4E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  998
  37. +48:  15/1200: 22.4S 135.7E:     100 (185):  025  (045): 1004
  38. +60:  16/0000:             :              :            :     
  39. +72:  16/1200:             :              :            :     
  40. +96:  17/1200:             :              :            :     
  41. +120: 18/1200:             :              :            :     
  42. REMARKS:
  43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, category 5, impacting the West Australian Coast.

  45. There is very good confidence in the position of the system with an eye visible
  46. and within range of Port Hedland weather radar.

  48. Dvorak analysis of 3 hourly average DT of 6.5 based on an eye pattern. 12Z eye
  49. pattern was W surrounding temperature with a DG/CMG eye adjustment, giving a DT
  50. of 6.5. MET/PAT yields 6.5 based on a D+ 24 hour trend. FT/CI=6.5 based on 3
  51. hourly average DT.

  53. Objective guidance, with ADT CI of 5.7 CIMSS and 6.0 NESDIS, AiDT   106 knots,
  54. and Open-AIIR ranging between 110 to 120 knots (1-min).  

  56. Intensity set to 115 knots (category 5) based mainly on Dvorak and a very clear
  57. eye pattern. Assisted by observations at Bedout Island with 10-min mean winds
  58. of 117 knots and gusts of 136 knots.

  60. Wind shear remains moderately low over 23U and at 1200 UTC CIMSS upper wind
  61. analysis has approximately 10 to 15 knots of shear. Isla has recently slowed
  62. its rapid development and is expected to remain at a consistent intensity until
  63. land interactions cause weakening. 23U is forecast to weaken once over land,
  64. but remain at least category 2 a significant distance inland.  

  66. Ilsa is now moving to the southeast and a coastal crossing is likely near
  67. midnight, between De Grey and Pardoo Roadhouse. In the long-term, Ilsa is
  68. forecast to move over central Australia and begin a transition to a deep,
  69. sub-tropical system as it interacts with the sub-tropical jet.

  71. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
  72. ==
  73. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1930 UTC.
複製代碼


補充：
稍早實測刷新了澳洲史上最強十分鐘平均風紀錄
#CycloneIlsa has set a new preliminary Australian ten-minute sustained wind speed record of 218km/h at Bedout Island! Cyclone George was the previous record holder with 194km/h back in 2007 at the very same location!  For the latest http://ow.ly/A4VP50NI8U0

https://twitter.com/BOM_WA/status/1646513163763089412/photo/1
krichard2011 發表於 2023-4-13 23:01
強烈熱帶氣旋Ilsa侵襲澳洲
強度達澳式五級
眼牆在不久前掃過 Bedout Island
平均風稍早速報值最大達 121KT(62.2m/s)
稍早更是測到 156KT(80.2m/s) 瞬間最大陣風
實測最低氣壓則是 931.7 hPa
更驚人的是該紀錄是在可航半圈所測到的
若是在危險半圈可能更驚人...

雖然在測到80.2m/s後資料就中斷了
但還是不得不佩服澳洲氣象局風速計的品質
一個小島 在飽受強風摧殘下還能穩定測到如此高的數據
真不塊是WMO官方 全球歷史最大風速紀錄保持者 XD

ws.png
krichard2011 發表於 2023-4-13 18:31
路徑有機會掃過 Bedout Island
目前實測平均風 65KT 陣風 85KT 最低氣壓 982.1 hPa
download.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94310.shtml

  1. IDW27600
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  4. at: 0719 UTC 13/04/2023
  5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
  6. Identifier: 23U
  7. Data At: 0600 UTC
  8. Latitude: 18.7S
  9. Longitude: 118.8E
  10. Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
  11. Movement Towards: south (188 deg)
  12. Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
  13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
  14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
  15. Central Pressure: 930 hPa
  16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
  18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
  19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
  21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
  22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
  23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
  24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (25 km)
  25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
  26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
  27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
  28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
  29. FORECAST DATA
  30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
  31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
  32. +06:  13/1200: 19.6S 118.9E:     025 (050):  120  (220):  923
  33. +12:  13/1800: 20.4S 119.7E:     040 (070):  095  (175):  948
  34. +18:  14/0000: 21.2S 121.0E:     045 (085):  070  (130):  971
  35. +24:  14/0600: 22.0S 122.7E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  983
  36. +36:  14/1800: 22.8S 127.5E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  998
  37. +48:  15/0600: 23.0S 133.9E:     085 (155):  030  (055): 1003
  38. +60:  15/1800:             :              :            :     
  39. +72:  16/0600:             :              :            :     
  40. +96:  17/0600:             :              :            :     
  41. +120: 18/0600:             :              :            :     
  42. REMARKS:
  43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has reached category 5.

  45. There is good confidence in the position of the system with an eye visible and
  46. within range of Port Hedland weather radar.

  48. Dvorak analysis of 3 hourly average DT of 6.5 based on an eye pattern. 06Z eye
  49. pattern was CMG surrounding temperature with a DG/CMG eye adjustment, giving a
  50. DT of 7.0. MET yielded 6.5 base on a D++ 24 hour trend with PAT 6.5. FT/CI=6.5
  51. based on 3 hourly average DT.

  53. Objective guidance, with ADT CI of 5.0 CIMSS and 5.0 NESDIS, AiDT   92 knots,
  54. and Open-AIIR ranging between 90 to 110 knots (1-min). ADT appears limited by
  55. constraints and not seeing the eye pattern. Intensity set to 110 knots
  56. (category 5) based mainly on Dvorak and a very clear eye pattern.

  58. Wind shear remains moderately low over 23U and at 0600 UTC CIMSS upper wind
  59. analysis has approximately 10 to 15 knots of shear. The system has been
  60. undergoing rapid development within the last 24 hors with favourable shear,
  61. high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs (30+ degrees Celsius). The current
  62. forecast intensity is based on continued development until making landfall.
  63. This is consistent with a consensus of NWP models. 23U is forecast to weaken
  64. quickly once over land, but remain at least category 2 a significant distance
  65. inland.  

  67. Ilsa has been moving south and is forecast to take a turn to the southeast in
  68. the next 6 hours. With recent motion to the south, persistence means the
  69. forecast track crosses the coast further west than model guidance. A coastal
  70. crossing is likely later tonight or early Friday morning east of Port Hedland
  71. and west of Wallal Downs. In the long-term, Ilsa is forecast to move over
  72. central Australia and begin a transition to a deep, sub-tropical system as it
  73. interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  

  75. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
  76. ==
  77. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC.
複製代碼
ben811018 發表於 2023-4-13 14:40


【４級熱帶氣旋ＩLSA】
目前位於位於澳洲西北方海域
過去幾個小時快速增強
核心變得更紮實，風眼清晰可見
即將達到巔峰狀態～
目前強度相當於強烈颱風
環流廣達７００公里
很巨很大隻
預計今天夜晚就會登陸！

b13ca (2).gif 7892.PNG 123456.png rb-animated (1).gif
krichard2011 發表於 2023-4-12 12:24
底層結構大致已建構完成

距模式預測登陸還剩下1~2天左右發展空間
20230411.214400.SH182023.ssmis.F17.color89.80kts.67p5.1p0.jpg
IDW60280.png
  1. IDW27600
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  4. at: 0127 UTC 12/04/2023
  5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
  6. Identifier: 23U
  7. Data At: 0000 UTC
  8. Latitude: 15.7S
  9. Longitude: 119.8E
  10. Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
  11. Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
  12. Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
  13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
  14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
  15. Central Pressure: 981 hPa
  16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
  17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
  21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
  22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
  23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
  24. Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
  25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
  26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.5/6HRS
  27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
  28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
  29. FORECAST DATA
  30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
  31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
  32. +06:  12/0600: 16.1S 119.7E:     040 (075):  070  (130):  974
  33. +12:  12/1200: 16.5S 119.4E:     050 (095):  080  (150):  965
  34. +18:  12/1800: 16.9S 119.2E:     055 (105):  085  (155):  961
  35. +24:  13/0000: 17.4S 119.0E:     065 (120):  095  (175):  952
  36. +36:  13/1200: 18.8S 119.4E:     075 (135):  100  (185):  945
  37. +48:  14/0000: 20.2S 121.4E:     100 (185):  075  (140):  969
  38. +60:  14/1200: 21.5S 125.3E:     125 (230):  045  (085):  993
  39. +72:  15/0000: 22.4S 130.8E:     150 (280):  035  (065): 1001
  40. +96:  16/0000:             :              :            :     
  41. +120: 17/0000:             :              :            :     
  42. REMARKS:
  43. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continues to develop, and a rapid intensification likely
  44. over the next 24 hours.

  46. Moderate to good confidence in the position of 23U with recent microwave pass
  47. and the slow movement of the system.  

  49. Dvorak analysis of DT = 4.5, MET/PT = 4.0, and D 24 hour trend. FT/CI at 4.0.
  50. Objective guidance, with ADT CI of 4.4 CIMSS and 4.0 NESDIS, SATCON at 69
  51. knots, AiDT  71 knots, and Open-AIIR at 55 to 60 knots (1-min). SMOS 2218UTC
  52. has 50-64 knots near the centre. Intensity is set at 60 knots based on Dvorak
  53. CI of 4.0.

  55. Wind shear remains low over 23U and at 0000 UTC CIMSS upper wind analysis has
  56. analysed approximately 10 knots of shear. The system should begin a rapid
  57. development cycle with favourable shear, high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs
  58. (30+ degrees Celsius). CIMSS AI-RI guidance suggests at high probability of a
  59. 30 to 35 knot increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. Intensity forecasts
  60. are based on a rapid rate of development prior to landfall, with a landfall
  61. intensity of 105 knots (Category 4). This is consistent with a consensus of NWP
  62. models. 23U is forecast to remain a strong system as it moves inland on Friday.


  65. The forecast track is based on a standard consensus of numerical weather
  66. prediction (NWP) models. This track is consistent with upper-air analyses which
  67. show a mid-upper ridge over the NT and an approaching upper trough over
  68. southern WA. There is relatively high confidence in this forecast track. Ilsa
  69. is forecast to move southwest parallel to and offshore from the Kimberley coast
  70. during Wednesday before turning south and then southeast during Thursday, with
  71. a coastal crossing likely later Thursday or early Friday between Port Hedland
  72. and Broome, most likely in vicinity of Wallal Downs. In the long-term, Ilsa is
  73. forecast to move over central Australia and begin a transition to a deep,
  74. sub-tropical system as it interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  

  76. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
  77. ==
  78. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0730 UTC.
複製代碼



JTWC
  1. 18S ILSA 230412 0000 15.7S 119.9E SHEM 80 974
複製代碼
krichard2011 發表於 2023-4-11 23:55
12Z 升格澳式C2 上看澳式C4

深對流大量爆發中
572e3b32-7023-47a9-93bd-9b8d3f6afbf4.jpg
IDW60280.png
  1. IDW27600
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  4. at: 1348 UTC 11/04/2023
  5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Ilsa
  6. Identifier: 23U
  7. Data At: 1200 UTC
  8. Latitude: 15.2S
  9. Longitude: 120.5E
  10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
  11. Movement Towards: southwest (233 deg)
  12. Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
  13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
  14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
  15. Central Pressure: 985 hPa
  16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
  17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
  19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
  20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
  21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
  22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
  23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
  24. Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
  25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
  26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
  27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
  28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
  29. FORECAST DATA
  30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
  31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
  32. +06:  11/1800: 15.5S 120.2E:     040 (070):  060  (110):  980
  33. +12:  12/0000: 15.8S 119.9E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  976
  34. +18:  12/0600: 16.2S 119.6E:     055 (105):  070  (130):  972
  35. +24:  12/1200: 16.5S 119.3E:     065 (120):  080  (150):  964
  36. +36:  13/0000: 17.5S 118.9E:     080 (150):  090  (165):  952
  37. +48:  13/1200: 18.9S 119.5E:     100 (180):  095  (175):  948
  38. +60:  14/0000: 20.4S 121.6E:     115 (215):  070  (130):  964
  39. +72:  14/1200: 21.8S 125.7E:     140 (255):  040  (075):  997
  40. +96:  15/1200: 22.7S 136.8E:     210 (385):  030  (055): 1002
  41. +120: 16/1200:             :              :            :     
  42. REMARKS:
  43. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa has developed rapidly during the past 6 hours, with
  44. bursting convection and symmetric structure evident. Good position fix based on
  45. overshooting cold tops in EIR imagery and recent microwave passes.

  47. Dvorak analysis yields FT = 4.0 based on MET/PAT and D+ 24h trend. DT not
  48. available due to development of central cold cover pattern. Available objective
  49. guidance with SATCON 55 knots (1-min), CIMSS ADT 59 knots (1-min), NESDIS ADT
  50. 57 knots (1-min) and OPEN-AIIR about 42 knots. Intensity is set at 55 knots.

  52. CIMSS upper wind shear analysed at 10-15 knots over the cyclone at 1200 UTC.
  53. Ilsa is forecast to develop at a greater than standard rate with favourable
  54. shear, high mid-level moisture and warm SSTs (30+ degrees Celsius) along the
  55. forecast track. Upper divergence is expected to increase to the south ahead of
  56. an approaching mid-latitude trough.

  58. The cyclone is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone from
  59. Wednesday, likely reaching a category 4 intensity during Thursday. Ilsa is
  60. forecast to move southwest parallel to and offshore from the Kimberley coast
  61. during Wednesday before turning south and then southeast during Thursday, with
  62. a coastal crossing likely later Thursday or early Friday between De Grey and
  63. Bidyadanga.

  65. The forecast track is based on a standard consensus of numerical weather
  66. prediction (NWP) models, consistent with a mid-upper ridge over the NT and an
  67. approaching upper trough over southern WA. There is relatively high confidence
  68. in this forecast track. In the long-term, the cyclone is forecast to move over
  69. central Australia and begin a transition to a deep, sub-tropical system as it
  70. interacts with the sub-tropical jet.  

  72. Intensity forecasts are based on a rapid rate of development prior to landfall,
  73. with a landfall intensity of 95 knots (Category 4). This is consistent with a
  74. consensus of NWP models. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is forecast to remain a strong
  75. system as it moves inland on Friday.  

  77. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
  78. ==
  79. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.
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