(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.3N 96.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PERSISTENT, BROAD ELONGATED DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 202303Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC POSITIONED
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CURVED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 15-20 KTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
CURRENTLY, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEARS (VWS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD, WHILE
STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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