ZCZC 647
WTIO30 FMEE 130052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20212022
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (ISSA)
2.A POSITION 2022/04/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.1 S / 30.4 E
(THIRTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 75
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/13 12 UTC: 31.2 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75
24H: 2022/04/14 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
36H: 2022/04/14 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2022/04/15 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE APPARENT EYE CONFIGURATION AT 1800Z HAS
PROGRESSIVELY DISORGANIZED AND LIKELY UNDER INCREASING SHEAR
CONDITIONS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED AT 0000Z
(VISIBLE ON THE CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGE). IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER
DATA (MICROWAVES, ASCAT ...), THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS REVISED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND IS A LITTLE LESS THAN
100KM FROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN COAST.
THE ISSA SYSTEM HAS PASSED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TO MID
LEVELS TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY EVACUATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH.
ISSA IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERS SHEAR THAT HAS
EXPOSED ITS CENTER. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR, THE INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION OF ISSA SHOULD RAPIDLY
DECREASE. THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FILL UP WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS (SOUTH AFRICA) :
- HEAVY LOCAL RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA ALREADY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE IMPROVEMENT.
- GUSTS UP TO 60-80 KM/H ON THE COASTS, LOCALLY 80-100 KM/H IN THE
NEAR COASTAL AREAS BEFORE DECREASING IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
- SEA VERY ROUGH OFFSHORE, DECREASING GRADUALLY.=
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