(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.4S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111130Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL,
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:13 pm WST on Saturday 5 February 2022
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 8 February 2022.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm WST Saturday the weak tropical low, 14U, was located near 15.9S 117.1E, about 515 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland. It is expected to dissipate on Sunday or Monday well north of the Pilbara coast.
Another weak tropical low, 17U, at 2pm WST Saturday was around 11S 103E about 300km west southwest of Christmas Island. 17U will move just to the north of Christmas Island during Sunday and then drift southwards on Monday. This system is unlikely to develop in an unfavourable environment, however shower and thunderstorm activity could increase for a period around Christmas Island over the next couple of days.
There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected for at least the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
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