IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 145.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 10/0000: 14.1S 144.8E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 989
+18: 10/0600: 14.2S 144.4E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 989
+24: 10/1200: 14.2S 143.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 990
+36: 11/0000: 13.9S 141.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 999
+48: 11/1200: 13.9S 139.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 996
+60: 12/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 100 (185): 050 (095): 990
+72: 12/1200: 14.2S 136.0E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 979
+96: 13/1200: 14.9S 133.4E: 135 (250): 035 (065): 998
+120: 14/1200: 15.4S 132.8E: 175 (320): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to develop and has now reached category 2
intensity.
Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red and microwave satellite
imagery. Convection continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very
tight banding. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 to
0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is
adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and CI is set to 3.5. This is supported by a
recent SMOS satellite pass indicating a small area of 50 knot winds near the
centre of the system. Intensity is set to 50 knots (10 minute mean).
The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 to 20
knots as the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough
passing to the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow
from the system. SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of
Tiffany, intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to
feel the effects of the coastline within the next 6 to 12 hours and thus the
current intensity is forecast to persist through to landfall.
Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 09/01/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 145.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 10/0000: 14.1S 144.8E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 989
+18: 10/0600: 14.2S 144.4E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 989
+24: 10/1200: 14.2S 143.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 990
+36: 11/0000: 13.9S 141.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 999
+48: 11/1200: 13.9S 139.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 996
+60: 12/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 100 (185): 050 (095): 990
+72: 12/1200: 14.2S 136.0E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 979
+96: 13/1200: 14.9S 133.4E: 135 (250): 035 (065): 998
+120: 14/1200: 15.4S 132.8E: 175 (320): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to develop and has now reached category 2
intensity.
Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red and microwave satellite
imagery. Convection continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very
tight banding. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 to
0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is
adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and CI is set to 3.5. This is supported by a
recent SMOS satellite pass indicating a small area of 50 knot winds near the
centre of the system. Intensity is set to 50 knots (10 minute mean).
The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 to 20
knots as the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough
passing to the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow
from the system. SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of
Tiffany, intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to
feel the effects of the coastline within the next 6 to 12 hours and thus the
current intensity is forecast to persist through to landfall.
Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
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