ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/191800Z-201800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 68.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8N 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A TIMELY
162359Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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