(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY
138 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
組圖打開中，請稍候......