JMA 00Z 停編

台風第19号(ナムセーウン)
2021年10月17日09時50分発表
17日09時の実況
種別        温帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
中心位置        北緯34度0分(34.0度)
東経167度0分(167.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa

CWB判定轉化溫氣

07fW01176
中央氣象局氣象報告
１１０年１０月１７日１１時０分發布
１０月１７日８時天氣概況：
二、編號第２１１９號（國際命名ＮＡＭＴＨＥＵＮ，中文譯名：南修），已於今(１７)日８時變性為溫帶氣旋，中心氣壓１０００百帕，１７日８時的中心位置在北緯３２．７度，東經１６６．５度，即在東京東方２４７０公里之海面上（臺北東北東方４４３０公里之海面上），以每小時２１轉３２公里速度，向北進行。

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN23 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521ZOCT21//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT21//
AMPN/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 162.4E TO 18.3N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY
310NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT
WIND BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT
WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH
GRADIENT FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
INTENSIFIES BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 131.9E. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. //
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