JTWC發布FW

WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) WARNING NR 024   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 57.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 57.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 23.0N 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 22.0N 55.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 57.1E.
03OCT21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 218 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS TC 03B MOVES OVER LAND INTO OMAN. A 031652Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 40-45 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT
IMAGE DUE TO ITS COASTAL PROXIMITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS OVER
LAND AND IS BASED ON THE 031730Z PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE WINDFIELD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH INFERS THAT THE MAX WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER
WOULD NOT EXCEED 55  KTS. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS BY TAU 25. NUMERICAL MODELS ALL
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

【史上首次】
熱帶氣旋「Shaheen-gulab」即將登陸阿曼，
成為史上第一個，自阿曼灣登陸阿曼的熱帶氣旋。

另外一個特點是，
Shaheen-gulab源自孟加拉灣，
登陸印度雖減弱為普通低壓，
但還是成功跨越，進入阿拉伯海後便重新增強，
甚至達到１級熱帶氣旋（中度颱風）的規模，
續航力很強！



熱帶氣旋登陸阿曼紀錄
(自阿拉伯海，由南而北貫穿)
1898年 未命名(1級熱帶氣旋)
1901年 未命名(1級熱帶氣旋)
2007年 GONU(5級熱帶氣旋)
2010年 PHET(4級熱帶氣旋)

JTWC 開始發報

IMD 00Z再度升格CS, 命名Shaheen

The Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast moved
west-northwestwards with a speed of about 25 kmph, during past 6 hours, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘Shaheen’ and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 01st
October, 2021, near latitude 23.2°N and longitude 65.3°E, about 400 km westnorthwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 260 km south-southwest of Karachi
(Pakistan) and 530 km east-southeast of Chabahar Port (Iran).
It is very likely to further intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during the next
24 hours and move west-northwestwards during next 36 hours. Thereafter it is likely to
re-curve west-southwestwards skirting Makran coast, move towards Oman coast
across Gulf of Oman and weaken gradually.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 03B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.3N
76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI. THE REMNANTS OF
03B CONTINUE TO TRAVEL WEST ACROSS THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT THROUGH
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN AREA DEEP CONVECTION. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 03B WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM