JTWC發佈Final Warning，靠近斐濟時逐漸減弱轉化

SH, 16, 2021020100, , BEST, 0, 156S, 1775E, 35, 995, TS,

FMS方才升格不久,JTWC便認為16P巔峰已過,18Z將定強下調至40KT,且在進逼斐濟的過程中將持續減弱

SH, 16, 2021013112, , BEST, 0, 134S, 1751E, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 25, 25, 1000, 90, 20, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
SH, 16, 2021013118, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1761E, 40, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 105, 50, 110, 999, 90, 20, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, BINA, M,

不得不說FMS這次對16P的反應是真的慢，雖然16P確實比較貌不驚人，但從風場掃描看就很明顯的已經是個TC了

FMS命名Bina

值得一提的是,直至JTWC已升格TS16P,FMS仍始終未對07F開始發報
不知道是不是因為斐濟正受到15P.Ana的直接威脅而無暇他顧

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 166.0E AT
300300UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.

THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS
AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS INTO FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH FURTHER DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND THEN MODERATE TO HIGH.

JTWC升格16P,首報上望45KT

位於15P西北方的系統,JTWC1730Z發布TCFA

WTPS22 PGTW 301700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 168.8E TO 15.1S 175.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 169.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY
586NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301406Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A PARTIAL 301037Z ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH
25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311700Z.
//
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