ABPW10 PGTW 030330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030330Z-030600ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030153ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 03FEB21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 030300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 174.0W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 17P
(LUCAS).//
NNNN
sh152021 ANA 20210202 1800 -26.2 -174.0 P SS 45 989
(1) AT 012100Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 179.9W, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 174.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 022135Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HIGH (50-70 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUTE TROUGH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEAST REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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